My New Blog

Sir John Templeton said, “Investors should buy at the point of maximum pessimism.”  Are we there yet? 

I can only assume with the $700 billion dollar bailout  plan and a new president within weeks we can start to assume the worst has past for most.  We will likely start to see or hear more positive news in 180 days or sooner.  So today may be the point of maximum pessimism. 

Napa County has approximately 8 months of inventory on the market, and sales data which has out paced the previous year for the last 90 days. 

Let's look at the positives:

1.  REOs or Bank Owned Properties are seeing multiple offers. 

2.  First time buyer tax credit of $7,500. 

3.  New conforming loan limits. 

4.  Historically low interest rates.

5.  FHA Insured loans making a come back.

Although you can never claim to really know the true bottom of a market, we can start to assume we are deep into the down cycle.  This down cycle provides a great opportunity for making an investment.  First time buyer or seasoned pro, there are some great deals out there and signs that recovery may be sooner rather than later.  Small homes or multifamily properties may make the most sense for investors as the current market conditions have strengthened the rental market.  First time buyers, have plenty to choice from too.

Regardless of the down cycle, the rebound will likely be slow and steady.  We should only make purchases we can live with for 10 years or longer.  Real Estate is a long range investment and wealth building tool. Hopefully we have all learned from those who tried to changes the rules and make it a quick cash game.

What's happening in the Napa Valley Real Estate Market.  According to BAREIS MLS Napa had 93 sales in June 2008, compared to 116 in June of 2007.  The average sales price for June was $563,387 and the median price was $437,500 vs. $837,397 & $617,500 respectfully for 2007. 

There are indications that we may have hit bottom, the real question is how long will we stay there?  Regardless of the duration of time before we experience home values increase, is now the time to buy?  

The short answer is yes.  There is always a caveat, so here is mine.  If you plan is to keep the property as a long term investment or home, and have the credit worthiness or cash to purchase the home, the answer is yes!  It might be the best opportunity to buy in years, low home prices, low interest rates, and plenty of selection.  This is economics 101 in action, buy low, hold, sell high.

I know some of you are thinking, "but prices might continue to go down" and you are right.  Prices might continue to slide and in many areas they will.  So why would I say now is still a good time. 

It's difficult to time any market perfectly, and all investments have risk, as does life.  Knowing we are down significantly more than the credit issue alone should have caused, the weak economy, higher unemployment, unstable investment markets, and all the other BAD NEWS HEADLINES we are left to find the answer on our own. 

Napa has a stable job market, numerous developments, and new job growth that will likely lead to more housing demand.  The chances of interest rates climbing and less inventory would make today better than tomorrow to purchase or invest.

If you would like to discuss your options to purchase real estate or have comments about my opinion I would love to hear from you.